2月份，宏观经济运行呈现“内外分化、政策驱动、结构凸显”的特征。国内方面，处于“十五五”规划开局之年，政策聚焦“新质生产力”，财政与产业政策协同发力，对科技创新、现代化产业体系的定向支持力度加大，经济内生修复动能温和增强。与此同时，货币政策维持稳健宽松，为市场提供充裕流动性，人民币汇率在基本面支撑下稳中有升。海外方面，美联储已于去年12月开启降息周期，但2月美国就业与通胀数据韧性超预期，导致市场对后续宽松路径的预期出现反复，美债利率波动加剧，全球风险偏好受到抑制。地缘政治层面，中东、俄乌等多线局势持续紧张，推升了能源与避险资产价格。整体而言，宏观环境为风险资产提供了政策支撑，但海外货币政策的反复与国内有效需求恢复的不确定性依然存在，市场更多将呈现以产业趋势和政策驱动为核心的结构性机会。
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